FLOOD WARNING: Ottawa River – Arnprior to Hawkesbury – Update #4
Weather Forecast:
Significant rainfall has fallen over the Ottawa River basin since Thursday, April 18, 2019. Environment and Climate Change Canada is forecasting rainfall of 25 to 40 mm starting Friday, April 25, and an additional 5-10 mm Saturday through to Sunday, April 28.
Environmental Conditions:
Flows and levels on the Ottawa River continue to rise due to runoff caused by precipitation, saturated soil and snowmelt over the central part of the basin.
Risks:
All flood-prone areas along the Ottawa River from Lac Coulonge down to the Montreal Archipelago are at risk.
Peak water levels across many areas of the Ottawa River are expected to be similar or above those experienced in May 2017 starting this weekend and going into next week. Risk is highly dependent on the amount of precipitation that is received.
Updates to all projections will be provided as they become available.
MVCA areas of concern:
The Ottawa River Regulation Committee (ORRC) currently forecasts water levels in the Constance Bay area to rise an additional 0.80 m to 1.0 m above the current elevation over the next three days. Levels are currently forecast to exceed those experienced at the height of the May 2017 flood by approximately 0.50 to 0.70 m.
RVCA areas of concern:
Based on the most recent model outputs from the ORRC and rainfall in the forecast, water levels in the Britannia area (Grandview Road and the Belltown Community) are projected to rise an additional 0.80 m to 1.0 m, above the current elevation over the next three days. Levels are currently forecast to exceed those experienced at the height of the May 2017 flood by approximately 0.50 m to 0.70 m.
Based on the most recent model outputs from the ORRC and rainfall in the forecast, water levels east of Cumberland Village (Boise Village, Morin Road, Leo Lane) are projected to rise an additional 0.80 m to 1.0 m above the current elevation over the next four days. Levels are currently forecast to exceed those experienced at the height of the May 2017 flood by approximately 0.20 m to 0.40 m.
SNC areas of concern:
Based on the most recent model outputs from the ORRC, water levels in the Clarence-Rockland and Alfred-Plantagenet area are expected to exceed the May 2017 flood. Water levels are projected to rise an additional 0.40 m to 0.60 m above the current elevation over the next three days.
Due to the forecast uncertainty it is difficult to accurately predict how quickly water levels will rise and when river conditions may peak.
ACTION:
Residents in flood-prone areas are encouraged to closely follow evolving conditions and to take necessary measures. Sandbags are available to residents in flood prone areas.
Residents are advised to stay away from watercourses where flows are high and where banks might be unstable. Parents are encouraged to explain dangers to children.
Duration:
This Flood Warning is in effect until Saturday, April 27, 2019.
South Nation Conservation (SNC) and its Ottawa partners, the Rideau Valley and Mississippi Valley Conservation Authorities, monitor the water levels and weather forecasts with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry as part of the Flood Forecasting and Warning Program. Updates are provided as conditions change.
The Ottawa River Regulation Planning Board will be reassessing forecast conditions and providing hydrological condition updates on its website daily at www.ottawariver.ca/forecast.php.
Please visit www.nation.on.ca for more information. To provide feedback with respect to changes in water related conditions please email waterwatch@nation.on.ca, post on our Facebook (/SouthNationConservation) or Twitter (@SouthNationCA).
For more information regarding the Ottawa River, visit www.ottawariver.ca.
FOR MORE INFORMATION: Omar Kana’n, Water Resources Analyst,
613-551-9057, okanan@nation.on.ca.
FOR MEDIA INQUIRIES: John Mesman, SNC Team Lead of Communications,
613-899-5341, jmesman@nation.on.ca.
FORWARDED TO: All Flood Forecasting and Warning Directory
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